Woooo!!!
Total domination tonight. Stars over the Ducks 5-2 and the series lead moves to 2-0.
I think that the story of the series so far is the fact that the Stars young, inexperienced D corps is completely outplaying the decorated, hall of fame, proven Ducks D corps. Pronger specifically was slow and got beaten a couple of times, and the Stars generally had lots of time all over the ice in the offensive zone. Conversely, Grossman, Robidas, and Boucher were making plays all over the ice, and the Ducks generally had a very hard time making anything happen even once they got the puck down low.
Turco didn't have to be great, but I think he's still entirely capable of that when he needs to be. His puck play had a bigger impact on the game than his netminding, but his neminding did outperform what Giguere offered up.
Speaking of Jiggy, he came up with some incredible saves on lateral moves, but really had issues when he was facing shots head-on for some reason. Ribero scored on him mano a mano, Modano pounded a shot past him [untipped] from the blue line, Richards got a quick wrister past him from straight up, and Robidas got a shot on him that he couldn't stop down and gave up an ugly rebound for Lehtinen to take home. Watching his reactions after some of the goals he gave up, I'm at least partly convinced that he's off of his game mentally a bit, and if he gives up a softie in Dallas on Tuesday it could be church for the Ducks.
One last player that bears mentioning is the big tradeline aquisition Brad Richards. That guy was money tonight. All over the ice: winning facoffs, backchecking and making good defensive plays, and doing what he does in the offensive zone. I love seeing a player of that caliber in a Stars jersey. While both of these games have been lopsided enough that no one player has been the difference, Richards has shown the poetential to be that guy if the Stars need him to be when the games get tight.
A new prediction for you: the two teams will split the next two games in Dallas, and the Stars will take the ducks out in game 5 on the road.
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Sunday, April 13
Friday, April 11
Playoff hockey!!
As my official entry into the world of blogging, I'd like to start off by running down my Stars/Ducks series breakdown. God I love playoff hockey.
I know that I'm already late to the party since the Stars roasted the Ducks 4-1 last night, but there's still a lot of series left to play so here goes:
Firstly, all of the analysis that I heard in the days leading up to game one was how impressive the Ducks D-core is. Add to that Giguere's playoff record and the late season slump that the Stars suffered and most prognosticators had this series going to Anaheim in 5 or 6.
I never really bought into this for all of the reasons that the Stars showed in game 1. I'm talking specifically about the Stars power play when combined with the Duck's penchant for taking lots and lots of penalties. In the regular season the Stars ranked 13th on the powerplay at 18.1 % and the Ducks powerplay ranked 20th at 16.6% and the PK was 12th at 83.1%. Figured together, the Dallas powerplay was about 10% more effective than the Anaheim one during the regular season.
In my life poker has taught me that numbers like these don't matter until you put them into the proper context. Edges must be measured against the frequency of the times that you'll encounter them. For example, if I were to say right now that I'm going to light every $100 bill on fire that I find on the street for the rest of my life, then my net loss will not be nearly what it would be if I were to instead light every $1 bill I ever found in my wallet for the rest of my life.
That's the context that I like to look at special teams numbers through, and here's how we do it:
In the regular season Anaheim lead the league in times shorthanded at 408. Dallas ranked 16th at 352. If the trend holds through the series, then Dallas can expect to see 16% more powerplays than Anaheim over the course of the series.
This adds up to a situation where a Dallas powerplay with a 10% edge in effectiveness gets on the job 16% more often. That's huge, and it could add up to a quick series win for big D unless the Ducks either drastically reduce the number of penalties they take or dramatically outscore the Stars 5 on 5 in the remaining games. I called for the Stars in 6 before the series began, and I'm sticking to it for now. If we win tomorrow I reserve the right to move to Stars in 5.
I know that I'm already late to the party since the Stars roasted the Ducks 4-1 last night, but there's still a lot of series left to play so here goes:
Firstly, all of the analysis that I heard in the days leading up to game one was how impressive the Ducks D-core is. Add to that Giguere's playoff record and the late season slump that the Stars suffered and most prognosticators had this series going to Anaheim in 5 or 6.
I never really bought into this for all of the reasons that the Stars showed in game 1. I'm talking specifically about the Stars power play when combined with the Duck's penchant for taking lots and lots of penalties. In the regular season the Stars ranked 13th on the powerplay at 18.1 % and the Ducks powerplay ranked 20th at 16.6% and the PK was 12th at 83.1%. Figured together, the Dallas powerplay was about 10% more effective than the Anaheim one during the regular season.
In my life poker has taught me that numbers like these don't matter until you put them into the proper context. Edges must be measured against the frequency of the times that you'll encounter them. For example, if I were to say right now that I'm going to light every $100 bill on fire that I find on the street for the rest of my life, then my net loss will not be nearly what it would be if I were to instead light every $1 bill I ever found in my wallet for the rest of my life.
That's the context that I like to look at special teams numbers through, and here's how we do it:
In the regular season Anaheim lead the league in times shorthanded at 408. Dallas ranked 16th at 352. If the trend holds through the series, then Dallas can expect to see 16% more powerplays than Anaheim over the course of the series.
This adds up to a situation where a Dallas powerplay with a 10% edge in effectiveness gets on the job 16% more often. That's huge, and it could add up to a quick series win for big D unless the Ducks either drastically reduce the number of penalties they take or dramatically outscore the Stars 5 on 5 in the remaining games. I called for the Stars in 6 before the series began, and I'm sticking to it for now. If we win tomorrow I reserve the right to move to Stars in 5.
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