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Friday, May 2

flat out robbed



I really don't have much else to say. God I'm upset. Stars lose 3-2 in overtime after 2 goals are disallowed during the game.


This series should be over. We should be enjoying the handshake.


ugh.


Morrow had 2 goals disallowed, and one of the calls was the most clear goal I've ever seen. The other was legitimately waved off. Still, this game should never have made overtime.

With that said Marty's getting beaten when people come to him unmolested. Marleau has beaten him a couple of times on breakaways, and the game winner was a slow developing play by Pavelski. Marty got beaten a couple of times in similar situations vs the Ducks as well. He's playing great in traffic and in scrums around the net, but he's not making game-changing saves on breakaways, and he's going to have to start.

Morrow was fantastic. He's got playmaking skills now, a great one-timer, and he's lost none of his grit and will around the net. He's leading this team in a way that few captains can. Ribero's still playing great, Richards is still playing great, Lehtinen's playing great. Zubov's still a little shaky, but the rest of the D-corp is playing solidly.

Now they have to suck it up and win on Sunday. Go Stars.

Thursday, May 1

Games 3 and 4 at home

I've only got a moment, but I do have a few thoughts on what I've seen over the past two days.

In game 3 Dallas won in overtime 2-1, and in game 4 the Sharks won it in regulation 2-1.

First off, Morrow is a possessed hockey playing machine that is dominating every game. He's hitting everything in sight, taking shots, making plays, and generally running amok. When you consider his size relative to the people he's running over, it's just that much more impressive. Outside of Detroit's Franzen, he may be the best player going in these playoffs.

Second, Ribero is following Morrow's lead. He's been physical, aggressive, and inspired. He leads the playoffs in points and assists, and has been more than anyone had hoped for. He's an excellent teammate and playmaker, and he's clearly at the top of his game right now.

With that said, the Sharks are a talented, proud, and hard-working team that will not go into the night quietly. A series win would exceed most expectations of this club, but a sweep would have blow them out of the water. The Sharks collectively are a remarkably strong defensive team, and when they decide to just shut it all down they've been very effective.

Thornton is just a gigantic machine and is scary every time he touches the puck. The Stars have been doing a nice job of running into him when he gets the puck near the net, but he's just incredibly good at shoveling the puck out into the slot before taking the blow. Marleau has been the story though. He scored multiple breakaway goals against Turco, and singlehandedly won the game last night for the Sharks. He's been opportunistic with his scoring in those opportunities, though he's been transparent otherwise.

In the end though, the Stars have just generally been far less opportunistic in those same scoring opportunities. The first period of game 3 ended 0-0, but it clearly could have been 4-1 Stars. The Stars eventually went on to win it in overtime, but it really didn't have to be that close if they could cash in on the scoring chances that were being generated. Ditto the early part of game 4. A lot of credit has to be given to the Sharks defensive game and goaltending in these two games, but the Stars are going to have to continue to expect such things as the playoffs continue.

I initially predicted a Stars win in 7 and multiple overtime games. I'm convinced now that the Sharks have dug themselves too deep of a hole to get out of and this one should end in game 5 or six. This is mainly based on the fact that last night the Sharks played almost flawless hockey the entire game and barely squeaked out a win. They'll have to stay at that almost level for 3 more games and continue to get the bounces in order to push this thing to a seventh game, and I just don't see that happening. The Stars, and Brendan Morrow in partcular, are just too determined to finish this thing off.

Sunday, April 27

Up 2-0 and feeling it


The Stars have taken yet another series by the throat and imposed their collective wills on the road.

What a great victory, and the two home games this week are going to be flat out CRAZY.

A couple of quick thoughts from the game:


I think the Nabokov wearing down observations are legit. He's not handling the puck well, he's giving up rebounds, and he 's letting passes go through him. Its costing him goals and the Stars are being opportunistic when the opportunities come about. He played a mountain of games during the regular season, and his mental and physical stamina may be at its end.

Chechoo and Thornton are not nearly as effective as they probably could be. They've got a couple of points in the series, but in general they are both being HANDLED. Neither is fighting through the defense corps for space in the offensive zone, and there are not any other Sharks lines that are stepping up behind them.

The sharks did do an excellent job of maintaining a forecheck without taking penalties. They didnt go shorthanded until the third period, and the first call was a clear makeup call (which I hate) that only gave the Stars a short powerplay. Of course, Zubov made one of those spectacular plays that just get magnified in the playoffs and the Stars only needed a couple of seconds anyway.

That said, this is a 5-on-5 series, so:

Cashing in on cheapies is key. Richard's goal off of an ugly Shark turnover tonight and Morrow's goal vs the Ducks on a turnover are the differentiators between winning and losing on many nights. If either player gets robbed by the goalie, then either of those games could have turned for the worst. Both times the goalie got schooled though, and both goals were gigantic momentum changers.

Not giving up cheapies is the other key. The D-corp has been excellent, as has the fact that the center is always back in the slot helping out for when the Sharks DO win a puck battle. There were several times tonight that a Shark would win a puck down on the boards and then fling it out to a waiting Star in the slot. Marty is not giving up soft goals at all right now, and that fact is starting to frustrate the Sharks.

I think if the Stars split the two home games Tuesday and Wednesday then the Sharks will have done what the Ducks did before them: dig a hole too deep to get out of. If they don't figure out a way to create some offense in game three they'll be in danger of being swept out. 2 goals will not be enough for them on Tuesday.

Saturday, April 26

Sharks game 1


so here's Shark's coach Ron Wilson before the series began:

"I don't think the anxiety level for us will be as high in this series," Wilson said after the morning skate. "Calgary's a tough team to play for anybody. It's a survival series."

The Stars, he added, are "a lot more disciplined, a lot more systematic."

Reflection on those words after a 3-2 overtime win by our little Stars reveals what could be a little fatigue by the Sharkies. I had figured that Calgary would beat up on the Stars to the best degree that they could because that's their game. They try to beat you into submission, and they just spent 7 games doing that to the Sharks.

If the Sharks team was in fact fatigued going into overtime on game freaking one then they're going to have a looong series ahead of them, because the Stars looked young, mean, and hungry out there when they wanted to.

Both teams showcased their defensive prowess throughout the game, and from the net out to the defense they still look like very similar teams, even with Zubov still out. But the Stars just have more forward scoring depth, and it's going to be a difficult fact for the Sharks to overcome. Both teams are capable of scoring the gritty, crash-the-net type of goals that you need in the playoffs. San Jose scored both goals that way. But Dallas has Mike Modano just hanging out there on the third line and the power play, and he's still got a full repertoire of pretty goals loaded up and ready to go. Both he and Morrow continue to show killer instinct with the one-timer and it's going to become one of those elements that defines this series.

Two other quick notes:

1)Ribero is playing great. He gets a bad rap in Canada because he played a different style there that was very Turgeon-like. But since coming to the Stars he's exhibited a gritty, determined, playoff-styled edge to his game that is setting up the kinds of goals that are winning games for this team right now. The work he did on the front end of the first Morrow goal was remarkable, and when a player with his level of skill refuses to be denied there are goals to be scored.

2)Morrow is also playing great. He's the true captain of the team: leading them in physicality, emotion, and offensive production. He scored the hard crash-the-net goal, and the pretty one-timer overtime game winner. When you go back to look at that shot, a its clear that he was ready for it, made huge contact, and didn't hesitate, and Nabakov still almost got to it. If Morrow settles the puck for just one bounce they're still playing. He didn't, he hasn't all year, and his one-timer was flat out deadly. I'll bet Hullie was pleased as punch.

Wednesday, April 23

Stars/Sharks series preview



Alright, let's break this thing down.

Unlike the Stars-Ducks series, I think that this game will be decided primarily in five on five play and in overtime. Both teams have excellent defense and penalty killing, which should negate a lot of the man-advantage edges that would usually come into play.

In fact, the Stars lead the league in penalty kill percentage until the very last day of the regular season, when the Sharks overtook them in a game in which the two team played one another and the Stars skated a win. Both teams were near the top of the league in shots allowed and goals against during the regular season.

For the regular season the Stars ranked 9th in scoring at 2.89 goals per game, and the Sharks clocked in at 19th at 2.63 goals per game. For reference, the highest scoring team in the league was the Senators at 3.15 goals per game (0.26 gpg more than the Stars) and the lowest scoring team in the league was the Islanders at 2.3 goals per game (0.33 worse than the Sharks). With that said, Jumbo Joe Thornton is always going to be a factor, and Chechoo missed big chunks of the season, which skews the Sharks numbers downward from what they should be with him in the lineup.

That still adds up to a Stars team that scores enough more than the Sharks to be significant in the series. Of course this is complicated by the fact that both teams made major trade deadline deals that help the offense - the Sharks added Campbell and the Stars added Richards. Campbell makes all of the Shark forwards better because he can get the puck to them in better parts of the ice and he quarterbacks the powerplay. Richards makes all of the Stars forwards better because he adds a third scoring line that forces opposition coaches to have to choose between shutting down the Ribero line, his line or the Modano line.

In the end I'd give Richards an edge over Campbell as far as overall team impact, but not a significant one, which means that the regular season stats should still be reasonable relevant.

In the postseason the Stars have been much steadier than the Sharks. The young D-corp, forward scoring, and goaltending have all been there for the Stars, and will need to continue to produce in order to continue on. The Sharks on the other hand, blew a 3-0 lead to Calgary after Mikka was pulled in one game, and generally let the series go to a game 7 vs a seven seed. Nabokov has not been nearly as solid during the postseason as he was during the regular season, and because he played so many games he may be tiring mentally.


So I suppose in the end it comes down to goaltending.

Both goalies have had streaks of brilliance and have let in the occasional soft goal. On pure puck-stopping ability I'd say the two goalies are comparable enough to marginalize that aspect when predicting the series. That said, the Stars carry a significant Turco advantage when you factor in his puck-moving abilities. Turco's ability to disrupt a forecheck and to neutralize a powerplay by catching and moving pucks is significant in any series, and provides a very real edge in net. The Sharks will have to skate the puck into the zone in order to attack - a strategy that the Stars D-corp is adept at breaking up. The Stars on the other hand, will have the option of skating or dumping the puck in and forechecking, which opens up strategic options that Tippett will be able to exploit.

I expect this to be a long series with at least 2 overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised to see either team skate away the victor, so I'll hope for a good bounce and say Stars in 7.

Go Stars!

Sunday, April 20

Handshake baby!


Its over!

What a matchup and what a great win for the Dallas Stars!

Stars 4, Ducks 1 and the series is over.

Whoooo boy, what a crowd tonight.

I've got so much to say, but alas it's late. I'll sleep on it and prognosticate tomorrow.

Man, what a game. What a crowd in there tonight. I don't know exactly how I'm going to sleep tonight, but I'm going to have to try.

Saturday, April 19

Never so easy


The series has been extended as the Ducks walked away from the Stars 5-2 last night, and despite the fact that the game Sunday will be another elimination game for the Ducks, clearly all of the pressure will be on the Stars to close the thing out at home and not have to go back to Anaheim for game 7.

I think this game was exactly what all of the prognosticators were expecting when they were picking the Ducks in 5 or 6. Giguere was excellent, make several huge quality stops in the first to keep his team in it. The Ducks forecheck ran the Stars all over the building, creating some nervousness in the stars young D corps that caused them to spit the puck up in some ugly situations. And the Ducks' veteran defense was generally smart and aggressive in their own end, limiting the Stars' offensive opportunities in the second and third periods.

I know that's weird to say given that the Stars put more than 40 shots on goal and had a number of spectacular scoring chances early, but as the game wore on the shots came from farther and farther away and the scoring chances became less and less spectacular. The Stars still could have won this game, but it just wasn't in the cards for game 5.

Even at their best, Anaheim still has some huge holes in it's game that the Stars are capable of exploiting:
-They have a really hard time clearing the zone on the penalty kill and in five on five situations.
-They lose a lot of puck battles along the boards
-They overpursue when looking for the big hits that create turnovers
-Giguere is getting beaten between the pads on breakaways or turnovers

In games 1,2, and 4 the Stars young D played fast, smart, poised hockey that turned these mistakes into goals over and over again. In games 3 and 5 they played a nervous, more timid game that allowed the Ducks to get away with those mistakes. Marty was also shakier in those games than in the wins, but that's a pretty easy one to point out.

I think this series is going to continue to turn on the play of Daley, Grossman, Fistric, and Robidas. If they take the hits and make the plays in their own zone on Sunday, the Stars are going to be very hard to beat. If they get run off the puck we're going back to Anaheim.

The Ducks are bullies, and they win with all out aggression. The Stars will have to be Matadors in this series, winning by drawing Ducks in and then sending the puck down the ice behind them.